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News from China
Slow economy tames global inflation
13th July 2015

 GLOBAL inflation appears tamer than many had thought it would be by now, still held back by a modest outlook for economic growth, meaning central banks look likely to leave rates lower for longer — or even ease policy further.

With a few exceptions such as Brazil, many major economies are still generating low or no consumer price inflation but instead higher asset prices, particularly stocks, and in many countries, a renewed pickup in house price inflation.

For those watching the world economy, China, not Greece, has for a while remained the No. 1 concern. The slowing world’s second-largest economy is generating just 1.4 percent inflation.

Jeremy Lawson, chief economist at Standard Life Investments, writes: “The long-term glide path is still down and most of the risks remain to the downside.

“Slow growth and moderating inflation explains why many emerging economies have been loosening monetary policy in recent months ... (but) there is a danger in taking things too far.”

The inflation outlook for the United States also remains remarkably tame, particularly given how quickly the unemployment rate has fallen but still with no convincing evidence that has translated into significantly higher wage deals.

While some large investment banks remain upbeat about prospects for US growth in coming months, forecasting a much stronger second half for the world’s largest economy has become boilerplate since the financial crisis began to ease. Federal Reserve policy-makers were clear in minutes of a June policy meeting that they had a close eye on economic growth abroad, particularly in China and other emerging markets.

Traders and investors in financial markets, who had pushed to September from June expectations for the first US interest rate rise in nearly a decade, now talk about December or even 2016.

Testimony from Fed chief Janet Yellen to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday could provide more clarity on how close the Federal Open Market Committee is to raising rates from a record low of 0-0.25 percent, but few expect strong signals.

“We still believe the FOMC majority is anxious to lift policy off the zero bound when the opportunity arises, preferably before year end,” wrote economists at Credit Suisse.

Source: Shanghai Daily, July, 2015
Russia’s ‘Look East’ policy pays off
10th July 2015

 CHINESE investors have bought between 50 billion roubles (US$880 million) and 60 billion roubles worth of Russian domestic treasury bonds this year, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said yesterday.

Moscow has increasingly looked east for investors, including for its domestic debt, after the West imposed economic sanctions on Russia last year over its role in the Ukraine crisis.

“I think that after purchasing such a volume and realizing that this is a good, profitable, reliable investment, our Chinese partners will expand the volume of their investment into the Russian economy,” Siluanov said in an interview with Rossiya 24 television.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose country needs investment to pull out of a recession spurred by sanctions and falling oil prices, has been shifting his economic and political focus toward Asian markets and toward China in particular.

The Russian Finance Ministry plans to borrow around 800 billion roubles on the domestic market in 2015.

The bond purchase by China suggests high-yielding Russian assets remain attractive to certain overseas investors, despite sanctions and volatility in the Russian rouble, in which so-called OFZ bonds are denominated.

Earlier, sources said the purchase took place outside the Finance Ministry’s weekly OFZ auctions and at different times.

Source: Shanghai Daily, July 10,2015
Dutch and Chinese firms seek to match
9th July 2015

 MORE than 200 small and medium enterprises from China and the Netherlands gathered in Rotterdam on Tuesday for their first-ever match-making party designed to expand bilateral cooperation in agriculture and the food industry.

The SMEs, including about 150 Dutch and 60-plus Chinese firms from a wide range of sectors such as seed cultivation, greenhouse technology, automation technology, dairy production, aquaculture and biological control, agreed on 196 cooperation intentions during the gathering in this biggest European port city.

A representative of the Dutch company Lely Group, which is famous for its milking robot, said the company has been trying to export machinery to China in the last four years and the match-making event proved to be a good chance for them to further explore potential Chinese partners.

“We are here to meet people. We know that the dairy industry is getting more and more important in China. Of course we want to play a part in this development, as a supplier of automatic systems,” said Marcel van Leeuwen, the group’s international business manager.

Worthwhile mission

The Chinese SMEs were mainly from China’s biggest agricultural provinces like Henan and Jilin as well as the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

A representative of a Chinese milk producer, who only gave his surname as Qu, said he wished to bring Dutch cheese-making technology to his hometown in Jilin. If possible, he would also try to raise Dutch Holstein cows there.

“We’ve found a partner who showed great interest. We are still in the discussion process and will continue our talks in the afternoon. The Netherlands has world-leading cheese-making technologies and is also famous for cattle breeding and its herd management systems. I think it is worth coming here,” Qu said.

The Bank of China, the organizer of the event, also joined the match-making talks. It took the opportunity to promote its cross-border yuan financing products and offered consultation services to both Chinese and Dutch SMEs.

A financial institution should invest to bring enterprises together and create more cooperation opportunities for them, said Wang Jian, head of the bank’s SME services.

“Only eying immediate income or profits is a too narrow vision. Clients’ needs and benefits must be given a priority,” Wang said.

“Chinese SMEs have not yet enough ability to go international. They need a national bank to help them enter the international market and get connected with their partners in foreign countries.”

Source: Shanghai Daily, July 9, 2015
Temasek’s portfolio value up 19%
8th July 2015

 SINGAPORE’S state investor Temasek Holdings said the value of its portfolio jumped by almost a fifth to a record S$266 billion (US$196 billion) in the year to March on the back of a surge in Chinese bank stocks and added it was confident in China’s long-term economic outlook.

The 19 percent gain was Temasek’s largest in five years and reflects its investments in lenders such as China Construction Bank and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China as well as holdings in leading Singapore firms. The previous year, its portfolio grew just 3.7 percent.

Stocks in China surged last year after the Chinese mainland moved to open up its equity markets with a stock trading link between Hong Kong and Shanghai. But in the last three weeks, they have tumbled some 30 percent, prompting authorities to unleash a slew of support measures.

“We remain confident in the long-term prospect of the Chinese economy and we are very comfortable with the prospect of the Chinese banking system as well,” Wu Yibing, Temasek’s head of China, said at Temasek’s annual review.

Wu said concerns about credit risks in China did not play out as feared last year.

“We actually not only stuck to our position. We increased our position in the Chinese banking system and we believe that has paid off,” he said of investments made last year.

Temasek made new investments of S$30 billion in the year ended in March, the biggest annual amount since the global financial crisis.

Singapore and Chinese firms account for more than half of Temasek’s portfolio, but it is increasing investments in the United States and Europe.

Source: Shanghai Daily, July 8, 2015

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